Large-scale circulation patterns and their influence on European winter windstorm predictions
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Severe winter windstorms are amongst the most damaging weather events for Europe and show significant interannual variability. While surface variables (temperature, precipitation) have been successfully predicted some time now, predictability of severe caused by extra-tropical cyclones remains less well explored. This study investigates windstorm prediction skill UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5 (GloSea5) Northeast-Atlantic European region. Based on an objective Lagrangian tracking severe, damage relevant windstorms, three storm parameters analysed: frequency two intensity measures. Firstly, based direct simulated is diagnosed. Significant positive found over extended area at downstream end track, i.e., from to southern Scandinavia. The agrees with previous studies older model versions, while results event-based novel. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves smaller regions reveal high low activity seasons. Second, characteristics their multi-linear regressions dominant large-scale circulation patterns [i.e., North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), East-Atlantic (EA)] analysed. Although these explain up 80% variance 60% intensity, forecast respectively linear-regressed do not systematically higher than approach. signal-to-noise ratio (frequency, intensity) also quantified, confirming that paradox extends predictions.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0930-7575', '1432-0894']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06455-2